Survivalist

The timeless tale of The Tortoise and the Hare has been passed down through the generations. It is often told to children as a simple moral lesson: “slow and steady wins the race.”  The hare, certain of victory, decides to nap, only to watch the steady tortoise cross the finish line first. The lesson seems clear: overconfidence can lead to failure, and perseverance can triumph over talent.

But give me a break, if this were a race in the real world, the hare would surely win in a short sprint, and undoubtedly outpace the tortoise. But what happens when the race isn’t just 100 meters, but 4000 miles or a lifetime?

Let’s transform this tale into real life and break down some numbers. A hare typically covers about 3 miles a day and lives for about 3-4 years, which equates to a total distance of 3,285 to 4,380 miles. On the other hand, a tortoise moves at just 0.2 miles per day, but lives on average 50 to 100 years. That range is a distance of 3,650 miles to 7,300 miles.

In the 1st half of this distance race the hare maintains its lead, but after mile 4,000 the tortoise just covers much more ground simply because it survives longer.

Some things are reversible, you can pivot, try again, or start over. But other decisions have permanent consequences .  Ergodic systems are those where you can recover from any outcome and return to the same starting point. 
Non-ergodic systems, however, are unforgiving, say taking a nap in the middle of a race. Life, as it turns out, is largely non-ergodic. Certain mistakes, especially when survival is at stake, come with irreversible consequences.  This is the concept of ergodicity, this profound insight claims that survival trump's performance.

Now, let’s layer in another key idea: loss aversion. Humans are wired to feel the pain of losses more intensely than the pleasure of equivalent gains. From an evolutionary standpoint, avoiding losses (like injury or death) is critical for survival, far more so than securing gains.

For example, losing $100 hurts far more than gaining $100 feels good. Mathematically, I jest with the equation: -2 > +1, meaning the pain of loss is twice as powerful as the pleasure of gain. In financial terms, losing 50% of your wealth requires a 100% gain just to break even.

At first glance, The Tortoise and the Hare may seem like a simple moral tale. But when you view it through the lens of ergodicity, it reveals deeper truths about life, survival, and long-term success.

Yes, the hare is faster and more powerful, likely to win any short race. But life’s race is long, full of uncertainties and obstacles. In this marathon of a life, I believe it is better to embody the tortoise’s attitude as a survivalist. 

So, the next time you’re rushing for the quick win, remember: sometimes slow and steady really does win the ultimate race, especially when survival is the ultimate finish line.

Acknowledgments & Credits:

A special thanks to the following individuals and sources of inspiration:

• Aesop, for the timeless fable of The Tortoise and the Hare.
• Him Gajria, for the article on the Percentage Paradox, which illuminates the financial realities of loss and gain.
• Guy Spier, for his Podcast insights and for sharing Luca Dellanna’s work on ergodicity.
• Luca Dellanna, for his research and insights on Ergodicity, helping us understand how survival trump's performance.
• Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, for their groundbreaking work on Prospect Theory/Loss Aversion Theory.

Thank you all for your shared wisdom and insights.
I hope to contribute in kind.